The delivery of the future (PART IV) – An example of Vision in Product Design (ViP) being used
Today is freezing outside and there isn’t the slightest chance that I’m going out there… so in the meantime I figured I can continue with the Vision in Product Design (ViP) example I’ve been writing about lately.
This is quite a lenghty post, so let’s just jump straight to the point.
PART 4:
DESIGNING – THE CONTEXT LEVEL
At this point, we’ve already reached the designing phase of the process, and we start by defining the future context.
DRIVING FACTORS FOR THE FUTURE
Within the VIP process the use of factors is intended to assist the deconstruction of the present world context in order to map probable and predictable features/aspects on a projected future.
Factors can be divided in four distinctive categories: Principles that determine stable patterns in the world; States which define relatively constant circumstances; Developments which reflect the changes over time, and Trends that determine people’s behaviours as a consequence to these changes.
The following list enumerates some of the most relevant and persistent factors that were identified within the PEST analysis (Political, Economic, Social and Technological) for the transportation domain. The selection was made based on the team’s rating of the aspects from which transportation is dependent on. These selected items acted as driving factors in order to develop a scenario of the future context in the form of an updated map of Barist for the year 2025 in the next phase of the project.
Limited amount of resources:
The present growing demand of resources such as oil, natural gas, fresh water and arable land has put a lot of stress into the world’s finite amount of natural resources, especially those which are non-renewable.
Technological research must have this issue as a focal point in order to guarantee a sustainable future both in terms of the environmental impact and the world’s economy. In fact, many fields, such as the oil industry, have already realized the importance of this issue and are spending vast amounts of money in the development of new, clean, efficient and sustainable fuel technologies.
As for the designers responsibility there is the need to begin integrating and spreading these new technologies’ potential.
Overpopulation & concentration of population:
Overpopulation can be defined as the amount of people living in a certain area exceeding the resources available within the specific area to sustain the society. It has become a major concern in recent times, as many believe that not only certain geographical areas around the world are reaching this level, but that in fact the world itself as a whole entity is facing this possibility due to the uncontrolled growth of the global population.
The concentration of population is also related to this problematic, but is seen more as a characteristic of modern societies that can have both beneficial and/or negative impact on a certain environment. Beneficial, for example in terms of localizing (and thus minimizing) the needed infrastructure to support the society and negative, for example, in terms of over using the local resources to the point of reaching overpopulation.
Congestion of infrastructure:
The uncontrolled and extremely fast paced growth of the population in urban areas, both natural and by migration of people, can also be a big problem as the infrastructure growth rate might be slower than the population growth rate which results in a congestion of the infrastructure, poor planning to accommodate new comers and the subsequent decline of the living conditions standards of the area.
This can be reflected as an example in the heavy (often extreme) congestion seen in many road networks within major urban areas, especially those in developing nations which have not had the time and/or resources to update their infrastructure to cope with the population growth.
Waste problem:
The rise of mass production and consumption throughout the last century has also caused a growth in the amount of waste been discarded. This overload of waste, often unmanaged, must be addressed in a responsible manner by modern society, as it has become a problematic that has a negative effect on the sustainability in various levels such as the environmental impact of non bio-degradable waste.
An adequate treatment of waste is needed in order to guarantee that the waste levels are kept to a sustainable level. Proper waste management also offers the possibility of recuperating materials for re-cycling or re-use.
eCommerce:
The rise of the internet in the past two decades has lead to a new way of handling business and has opened new distribution channels that can reach people more easily. The possibilities of eCommerce and online shopping have revolutionized the way people acquire their products, and the logistics involved in this trade. Websites such as Amazon.com and eBay.com are just but a few examples of this new trend.
Smart automated systems:
Electronics and high-tech systems have penetrated society in such a way that it is currently unthinkable to separate them from each other. From robotization in industrial environments, to the usage in medicine, to the ever more advanced communication technologies, high-tech devices have become an integral part of everyday life as facilitators of human tasks.
The next step of course, is the development of smart systems which can not only be considered tools which act as an extension of humans, but that can act independent of human interaction.
THE FUTURE – BARIST IN 2025
The previously identified driving factors were used in order to define what the future context would be like. The main changes occurring in Barist by the year 2025 are described below.
The updated map of Barist for the year 2008 (click to see a detailed view)
Geography:
Global warming has had a negative effect on Barist, as well as in the rest of the world. Rico’s desert has continued expanding to alarming levels and driving away the people who used to live in its proximity. As water levels rise, the threat of flooding is increasing, and many areas that were not prepared for the fast changes have suffered from this, as is the case with the delta of Saint Anna’s river which has flooded several times creting problems for the population of the area and for the quality of the land in the agricultural district nearby.
Over-mining has caused erosion in Saint Anna’s mountains, which have also lost the snow capped peaks due to rising temperatures. Deforestation has destroyed almost a third of Saint David’s Natural Reserve on the side of neighboring countries with less extract environmental rules.
Demographics:
The total population of Barist skyrocketed to 31 million inhabitants, which means that the population density almost doubled. This is most evident in the sudden growth of Saint Bari and Zwappa, which have grown to merge with each other into a single megalopolis known as the Zwappa-Bari metropolitan area. In this area, suburbia has also been pushed even further away from the city center, to cope with the growing city.
Other main urban centers have grown too, except for Marjelopolis, which was affected by the growth of Rico’s desert, and a big part of its population was forced to move away, most of them into Zwappa-Bari.
The growth of Rico’s desert also affected Ricopolis, in neighboring country Ninaland, which has created a recent wave of migration of Ninans in search of a better future in Barist. Unfortunately lots of them are low skilled and end up living in very poor conditions in the slums of Santo Stefanus.
Economics:
Overexploitation of the natural resources has meant a severe decline of the mining industry, and the few oil wells have dried long ago, meaning that the energy needs still rely partly on imported fuels, yet a growing share is being fulfilled by alternative energy sources such as solar farms in Rico’s Desert, offshore windmill fields in Besar Sea and the construction of Heru’s Dam in Saint Bari’s river to be used for a hydro-electrical power plant.
A bigger population and the effects of global warming have had a negative effect on the quality and production power of the agricultural district which has increased Barist’s dependency on foreign food sources.
The economy is stronger than ever and still relies heavily on commerce and trade, which translates into Baru-Bali City’s continuous growth in influence as one of the major financial centers in the world, a growth of the industrial areas of Saint Bari and an increase in the amounts of goods flowing into the country.
The investment in the development and acquisition of Information and Communication Technologies from knowledge oriented centres and universities, brings several advantages on what national business and transportation are concerned. eCommerce has revolutionized the way things are bought and a big portion of the people living in urban areas now choose for the convenience of online shopping and home delivery.
Government:
The government is making great efforts and investments for a more sustainable future, with “green” projects such as self-sustaining buildings, recycling plants and a high investment in the development of alternative energy sources.
Waste management projects such as the collection of discarded goods by the same company that produces them (in a cradle to cradle approach) have also been organized and incentives for environmentally friendly companies implementing such projects include tax cuts and subsidies. There are more and more policies intended as incentives for the citizens to live more sustainable lives, such as the prohibition of the circulation of privately owned cars within the city centers, and discounted fares for the eco-friendly public transportation network.
Transportation System:
Saint Bari’s Port has increased its capacity substantially in order to cope with the changing transportation needs of the growing economy and population. The port at East Cape has also grown and the port at Zwappa is already operational and works as a satellite supporting port for Saint Bari. The airports capacity to handle freight has also increased accordingly to the new needs. A fully integrated and fractal system of transportation is now used, for which different main distribution nods have been established, which are subsequently linked to smaller nods that serve more specific areas The already high and increasing prices of fossil fuels have meant a gradual (yet still not finalized) move towards more sustainable propulsion sources for all types of vehicles such as electrical or fuel-cell powered.
OUR VISION
Following the Vision in Product Design method, the context factors that you select are like the ingredients of a meal; you have to think about how they will combine, how they relate to each other, and what the overall experience will be like. The methodology suggests to group the factors into manageable clusters and describe the relationships between them.
For our project, the team chose a mission statement like the best way to represent the aims of the team in relation with the factors and its relationships in the long term (a mission statement is a short written description of the aims of a business, charity, government department or public organization).
Our mission statement (click to see a larger version)
